Stagflation as a problem for the Russian economy.

One of the biggest problems. For the Russian economy. Are economic sanctions. The economic sanctions determine products that Russia is not allowed to buy. There is always a possibility that countries like China export high-tech products to Russia. But. Russia must get money.

From somewhere so that it can use it to buy those products. Iran, China, and North Korea are so-called grey areas in the sanctions. There is a possibility that Russia uses Chinese and North Korean agents to buy things like drones. Or the merchandise. Like oil and gas. Will be shipped to India. Which resells those products and buys electronics. To the Russian military. 

The thing is that the grey areas have a big mean. In world economics and intelligence. There are governments that have good trade relationships with the Western world. And with China and North Korea. The Chinese and North Korean governments can establish import and export companies in those “grey countries”. There might be some autocracies that want support from countries like North Korea. North Korea can offer military technology like missiles to its allies. 

They can establish company chains to support their intelligence operations. Those companies can be used for money transfer and industrial espionage. That espionage can have a focus. In high-tech warfare and artificial intelligence. 

"Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment. The term stagflation, a portmanteau of "stagnation" and "inflation", was popularized, and probably coined, by British politician Iain Macleod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom." (Wikipedia, Stagflation)

Russian economic problems. And the threat of stagflation. 

The Western world considers the Russian economic situation. There is a possibility that the Russian society will collapse. The chaos in society forms. When the economy collapses. When there is no food or anything. People start to rebel. The major problem in Russian society is this. All demonstrations. 

That doesn’t please the Kremlin. Are repressed. The very tight and rough police command collects pressure in society. And somehow, someday it will erupt. That means violence against the Russian elite. 

If the Russian economy collapses. That can cause chaos. The fact is that the chaos can cause a situation in which the Russian nuclear weapons will be launched to sell to people who offer the biggest money. 

The nuclear weapons are things that keep the Kremlin in command. And. The fact is that the successor of Putin might not change anything. Or, it's possible that after Putin’s era there will be even civil war in Russia. Or, the end of Putin’s era. Causes a bloody power struggle. 

“Stagflation” means a situation. Where unemployment is high, and inflation is high. and economic growth is slow. The ruble’s value to the dollar. It has grown 45%. That is the reason for the tight economic policy. This means the outside value of the Ruble grows, but its internal value or inflation decreases. That causes a very interesting situation. 

When we think about this situation. That causes the effect. That the people sell Rubles away. Or they would sell, if that is possible. The growing outside value. For currency means that if people sell their money. Or change it to other currencies, they will make very high profits. But that can decrease the value of the currency. When the currency. Or its value turns higher. Which means the businessmen, or foreign traders. Get less money. 

Lack of free information. And the lack of neutral sources. Has a negative effect on the Russian economy. Another thing is that. The hardcore police command.  Without a possibility to complain, police actions cause fear. What if the police confiscate merchandise or investments? Or what if the police turn violent against investors? The laws that allow arbitrariness are things that limit investments. And especially foreigners travel and work in that country. And economic sanctions are things. That limits the ability and willingness to invest in that country. 

The ideal situation would be a strong or stable internal value and a lower outer value. That would be good for exporters. The idea is that. If they get their raw materials. With a lower price that maximizes their profits. The importers will benefit in the situation. Where the outer value of currency is high. And. The internal value of currency is low. Another problem with the Russian economy is that the country has no free information channel. 

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation must follow the orders of the Federal Security Bureau (FSB). And that means it's hard to get. Real or confirmed numbers for the Russian economy. Another thing is that the value of the Ruble is determined by the central bank. And this means. Information about the Russian economic situation is not free. Or it's hard to confirm from neutral sources. 

Another thing is the Ukrainian war. Many men are in that war. And that means there might be many unemployed people who are actually at war. So, that means that. Does Russia consider servicemen who are in Ukraine as “outsiders of labor markets” or “are they unemployed”? Today. The Russian economy is tied. To military products. All those products are needed in Ukraine. And there are only a few products that Russia can export to other countries. Those products are oil and gas. Economic sanctions limit trade with Russia. Another thing is the public opinion. Public opinion can cause boycotts if companies cooperate with Russia.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fortress-russia-economy-has-adapted-well-pressure-stagflation-presents-opportunity-west

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation